In 2014, Toyota’s then-president Akio Toyoda introduced the Mirai, the company’s first hydrogen-powered car. At the time, he called it a “turning point” for the car industry and said he had “seen the future” with hydrogen.
But ten years later, things look different. Toyota has only sold 27,500 hydrogen cars globally, and the company is no longer certain about hydrogen’s success. “I can’t say for sure that it’s a bright future for hydrogen,” said Hiroki Nakajima, Toyota’s Chief Technology Officer, in November 2024.
Even with doubts, Toyota still believes hydrogen has an important role in reducing carbon emissions and creating a greener future. “If we give up on this technology, then we risk giving up on the future,” Nakajima added.
As electric vehicles (EVs) become more popular, Toyota is focusing on hydrogen-powered trucks, buses, and vans instead of passenger cars. In November 2024, Toyota introduced a prototype hydrogen-electric hybrid van, the first of its kind. This van will be tested in Australia.
Toyota is also working with Isuzu Motors to produce small hydrogen-powered trucks later this decade. Additionally, the company has signed deals to provide hydrogen-powered buses to cities like Tokyo, Strasbourg, and Madrid.
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Experts, however, remain cautious about hydrogen’s future. “Hydrogen has been a failure for passenger cars,” said James Hong, an energy transition expert at Macquarie Capital. “We still don’t know if it will succeed for trucks or energy storage.”
Hydrogen fuel cells work by mixing hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity. The only emission is water vapour, making it a clean option for vehicles. Hydrogen-powered vehicles refuel faster than EVs and have a longer driving range, especially for heavy vehicles like trucks.
Despite these benefits, hydrogen vehicles face big challenges. The infrastructure to produce and refuel hydrogen is limited, and costs are high. For example, Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Crown car costs ¥1 million ($6,500) more than a hybrid version.
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Meanwhile, advancements in lithium-ion battery technology and cheaper EV options, especially from China, make EVs more attractive. “When a technology is cheaper, works well, and is already available, like EV batteries, you have to question the need for hydrogen,” said Sam Adham, an analyst at CRU Group.
To lower costs and improve hydrogen technology, Toyota is forming partnerships with other companies. For example, Toyota’s subsidiary, Hino Motors, announced a merger with Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation to scale up hydrogen development. However, this deal has been delayed due to regulatory approvals.
Toyota is also working with Hyundai in South Korea and BMW in Germany, both of which are investing in hydrogen-powered vehicles.
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Hydrogen experts like Anne-Sophie Corbeau from the Centre of Global Energy Policy see progress but remain cautious. “A few years ago, people were more optimistic about hydrogen for trucks and buses. Now, electric options are improving faster,” she said.
A major challenge for hydrogen adoption is the lack of refuelling stations. In February 2024, Shell announced it would close all its hydrogen stations in California, where hydrogen cars are relatively popular. In response, Toyota Mirai owners filed a class-action lawsuit, saying they were misled about fuel availability.
Japan and South Korea, which have heavily invested in hydrogen, face similar issues. Toyota insists that both vehicles and refuelling stations must be developed together. Nakajima compared the relationship to “honey and a bee,” saying neither can succeed without the other.
Toyota remains hopeful about hydrogen’s future and compares the situation to its early days with hybrid cars. When Toyota introduced the Prius in 1997, it took years before hybrids became popular. Today, they are a big part of Toyota’s success.
“This is what Toyota does,” said James Hong. “It’s big enough to take risks, even on projects with a low chance of success.”
